Estudios Internacionales

Lost in disintegration. Militarization and ideology in the South American regional society (2010-2020)

Agostina Dasso Martorell — 2024-04-29

The South American regional society has deteriorated over the last decade. Faced with social and political unrest, governments have decided to resort to military action. Simultaneously, relationships between neighbors have become strained due to ideological differences. The literature has managed to capture and explain the reasons for unrest at the domestic level, without diving into how it affects the way neighbors relate to each other. In this paper, I aim to understand how internal political and social dynamics are influencing interstate relations in the region. I posit that domestic militarization and ideological distance between presidents are an impediment to advancing defense cooperation. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following questions: how does domestic militarization and ideological distance between presidents affect cooperation? What are the levels of cooperation? Under what conditions can relationships between neighbors deteriorate? To find the answers, I analyze dyadic defense relations and adopt a mixed method combining descriptive statistical analysis, a QCA technique and case study so as to identify causal combinations that lead states to stop cooperating. The statistical analysis describes the state of affairs in the region, while the QCA reveals that high domestic militarization and wide ideological distance lead countries to stop cooperating. The analysis of the “most-likely” case of the Brazil - Venezuela dyad shows how domestic militarization is perceived negatively when ideological distance between presidents widens. The conclusion of this paper is that a state will perceive the militarization of another state as a threat to its security when the ideological distance is wide, leading to the deterioration of cooperation.

La construcción del sistema de partidos brasileño. Formación de nuevos partidos y estrategias políticas

Décio Vieira da Rocha — 2024-04-29

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar el fenómeno de la formación y éxito de nuevos partidos en el período de redemocratización y retorno del multipartidismo brasileño (1979-2018). Aunque el fenómeno es recurrente en Brasil, pocos estudios han analizado el tema de forma más directa en este país. ¿Cuáles son los determinantes de la formación continua de nuevos partidos? Nuestras hipótesis son que la permisividad del sistema electoral pierde efecto cuando los actores se adaptan a él y que factores endógenos a la competencia política aumentan la probabilidad de que surjan nuevos partidos. Utilizamos metodologías previas y conceptualizamos a los partidos nuevos como aquellos que son organizativamente nuevos (obtienen un nuevo registro) y ganan al menos un escaño en la Cámara de Diputados. Dividimos a los partidos en partidos de contestación o de coaptación para evaluar el impacto de las variables institucionales y económicas sobre ellos. Nuestros resultados indican que los partidos que están totalmente "fuera del sistema" (los partidos de contestación) tienen más dificultades para ser competitivos, lo que demuestra que el fenómeno de la aparición de nuevas siglas está más vinculado a una reorganización estratégica de las élites que a una demanda de los votantes.

From George H. W. Bush to Donald Trump. Presidents' pledges on trade and what they accomplished (1989-2021)

Flávio Contrera — 2024-04-29

This article evaluates the fulfillment of electoral pledges on trade policy by US presidents in the period from 1989 to 2021 with the aim of identifying patterns of continuity and change in the agenda of the parties and the country. The identification of promises was made based on the analysis of the campaign manifestos of the parties of the presidents elected in the period. The criterion established to evaluate the fulfillment of the pledges was the implementation of an action. There are similar degrees of compliance between Democrats and Republicans, whose agendas (i) are similar in terms of free trade agreements and protectionist measures and (ii) diverge in relation to the adherence of labor rights and environmental protection commitments in these agreements. Original, it contributes to the debate on the quality of democratic representation by measuring the degree of responsiveness of political parties in a policy of special interest to American workers. At the same time, it shows how bipartisan continuity and convergence were fundamental in guiding US trade policy.

The interregional political dialogue between the European Union and South America 2017-2020

Cristián Garay Vera — 2024-04-29

The Interregional Political Dialogue for Security and Defense between the European Union and South America has a renewed modality, after the break between the two groups of interlocutors due to the Venezuelan issue and the internal political changes in the South American bloc. The current dialogue, managed from one side by the Foreign Service of the European Union, as a diplomatic body, and the interlocutors of various countries, establishes a prospective on global challenges from Europe that does not coincide with South American concerns, although there is consensus on values such as democracy, there is a strong difference regarding the meaning of its concrete realization. This is evidence of the difficulties of an interregional dialogue that has been expanding its agenda of issues based on generic consensus on values and that has an impact on the assessment of threats, weaknesses and opportunities in each of the counterparts.

International relations and foreign policy in digital presidential leadership

Nicolás Freire Castello — 2024-04-29

This article addresses digital communication, issued by 10 South American presidents, in the context of the exit of the Covid-19 pandemic (second half 2021). This study examines the presidential communication leadership in the field of international relations and, in particular, regarding the attention that they give to international issues in their communications, as well as the direction that such attention takes.
The methodological strategy implemented adapts mechanisms used in similar studies, combining elements of big data with those of content analysis. A total of 11,616 data/messages were analyzed.
The findings obtained explain that presidential digital communication in South America pays little attention to the international sphere and, in the few spaces reserved for this topic, said communication is directed by virtue of global issues, rather than bilateral or multilateral ones. This, in partial contrast to our hypothesis, which postulates that presidential digital communication in South America pays little attention to the international sphere, but that in the few spaces reserved for this topic, said communication is directed by virtue of bilateral rivalries.

Productive transformation and the new relevance of industrial policies in Latin America

Mario Castillo — 2024-04-28

In this paper we discuss the productive transformation and the new relevance of industrial policy in Latin America with reference to a new developmentalism. We reflect on the productive transformation of the region, where the stagnation of productivity is due to premature deindustrialization and the absence of structural change, in contrast to the successful experience of Southeast Asia. Given the renaissance of industrial policy, it is argued that the new policy for productive transformation should take into account four types of fundamental guidelines: climate change and emissions reduction, digitalization of production or Industry 4.0, new autonomies and shortening of chains, and social inclusion. We assume that, based on the lessons learned and the analysis of the obstacles from a structuralist perspective, it will be possible to find a new consensus for a productive transformation proposal with a regional integration perspective.